Civil society members protesting at Cop28 in Dubai, 9 December 2024. (Geneva Solutions/Paula Dupraz-Dobias)

Climate finance ‘a make or break’ deal for Cop29. The Cop29 climate conference in Baku is a last chance saloon for nations to agree on a revised target for new financing to developing countries. Major issues still need to be ironed out to keep the climate crisis from spinning further out of control.

🗳️GUESSING GAME. Whether the results will be known on Wednesday morning from the tight US presidential election between democratic vice president Kamala Harris and the former Republican president Donald Trump is anyone’s guess.

🧭Quo vadis? What’s certain is that whoever comes out on top will matter for Geneva. Trump’s "transactional" approach to foreign affairs and his disdain for international organisations contrasts with an expectation that Harris will continue in a similar direction to president Biden’s on bilateral, regional and global relations. But it may not be so clear-cut.

📖 Read more: What did Biden do for multilateralism and international Geneva?

📚Past lessons. While the former president has said relatively little on multilateralism ahead of tomorrow’s vote, Trump’s "America First" policy saw the US pull support or membership from the UN Human Rights Council, the World Trade Organization and the World Health Organization. Global leaders will be bracing for Trump 2.0 should he return to the White House and for what that could mean for the climate, global health and trade.

As to humanitarian crises, ICRC director general Pierre Krähenbühl had a foretaste of Trump's possible return earlier this year when his allies condemned his nomination over his CV.

But while Trump’s policies were generally regarded as erratic and exceptional, the Biden administration’s initial re-engagement in multilateral bodies – where political nominees have filled leading roles – has since signalled a more "tepid’ interest" in the UN, not out of line with earlier administrations.

A possible Harris administration is expected to back its global alliances, including Nato, and play an active role in international organisations.

🚢Trade. Vowing to impose new tariffs on imported goods if elected, Trump left an enduring mark on the WTO during his presidency, blocking its appellate body, a sort of dispute settlement court – at a time of rising trade tensions often involving the US –, by refusing new appointments to it.

But Biden’s trade policy has continued in a protectionist vein, introducing tariffs on Chinese electric cars, semiconductors, lithium batteries, solar cells and aluminium while refusing to restore the appellate body and suggesting that reforms are needed in the organisation to “restore trust” in it.

As part of her promise to put the interest of US workers first, Harris is expected to maintain the same direction on trade. In 2021, Harris met with WTO director general Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala to discuss how trade can improve living standards.

🌡️Climate. Should the republican be elected, Trump 2.0 risks being a repeat of his first term. He has pledged to again pull out of the Paris agreement, which the US returned to after Biden became president. Trump said he may also look into pulling the country out of the UN process underpinning climate discussions, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Negotiators at next week’s Cop29 will be watching the US vote count closely for indications on how successful key agenda items up for negotiation, including new climate finance, will ultimately be.

⚖️Human rights. Returning as a member of the UN Human Rights Council, after Trump’s withdrawal from the body, the Biden administration helped mobilise a series of resolutions on rights violations by Russia in Ukraine, in Sudan, Nicaragua and elsewhere and pressed for the release of a report on the situation of Uighurs in China.

The US, however, chose not to run for a second term as council member, an unusual move where countries may serve two consecutive terms. One expert said that balloting at the UN General Assembly for council members could have exposed the US, as it has become increasingly isolated at the UN due to its support for Israel.

– By Paula Dupraz-Dobias

EVENT: Cop29: can countries unlock new climate finance? The climate conference next month comes in a year dominated by wars, elections and extreme weather events. As climate change slips down the global agenda, raising the risk of governments slowing their pace in reducing greenhouse emissions, countries have a crucial task at hand: agreeing on a new funding target to help vulnerable nations cope with climate impacts. Will wealthy nations put aside their own political agendas and agree to turn billions of dollars in financial commitments into trillions, as poorer nations have called for? What of Cop28's promise to transition away from fossil fuels?

Join us today at 12:15 pm at Domaine du Château de Penthes, Geneva, for a discussion featuring experts and advocates who will share their insights and expectations for Cop29. Snacks and drinks will be served after.
Sign up to attend in person or virtually.