Geneva, South Korean Mission to the UN, 29 October 2024. (Jean Luc Andrianasolo for Le Temps)Geneva, South Korean Mission to the UN, 29 October 2024. (Jean Luc Andrianasolo for Le Temps)

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🤑Make or break Cop for finance. The financial and political will that countries demonstrate at the Cop29 climate summit in Baku next week could set the tone for the decades to come, policy experts speaking at Geneva Solutions’ event on Monday at the Geneva Press Club said.

Rewatch the discussion: Cop29: can countries unlock new climate finance?

The goal. Wealthy nations are due to deliver on a new and more ambitious financial target to help address the needs of developing countries. It comes ahead of an important deadline next year for countries to update their national climate plans for cutting emissions and keeping global temperatures from rising above 1.5-2°C.

“Countries would potentially set more ambitious targets if they had the confidence and certainty about the types of finance they could count on,” said Matthew McKinnon, founder and director of the Geneva NGO Aroha.

🇺🇸The elephant in the room. The new target being set in Baku will replace developed countries’ current commitment to pay $100bn per year to poor nations hit by climate change. But in what form, how much compared to the needs estimated in the trillions and by who are some of the contentious questions still up in the air, especially with the world’s biggest developed emitter being in the full throes of a general election.

McKinnon said: “It’s a significant development that is overshadowing this Cop… One of the candidates [Trump] has a track record of pulling out of this entire (Paris agreement) framework and could do so in the future while the other [Harris] appears pretty committed to climate action.”

🫰Mind the gap. The climate talks will also focus on how private sector investment and finance can help to plug the finance gap, with UN Trade and Development economist Amelia Santos Paulino recalling that around $4.5 trillion is needed to achieve the sustainable development goals by 2030, half of which is related to the energy transition. Yet capital markets are sitting on trillions of dollars of funds that are not making their way to developing countries, she noted.

“Bringing together different constituents and discussing at this Cop how we can bring affordable finance to developing countries is key.”

🪧Civil space under siege. Azerbaijan has come under fire for its crackdown on activists, journalists and opposition figures, fuelling further concerns for civil society actors attending this year’s event.

Why it matters. “Hosting a Cop with reported civic space restrictions and crackdowns, as we have seen in previous years, really has an impact on civil society participation, on what people can say, and also on the ability of the climate talks to deliver ambitious outcomes,” said Lien Vandamme, a senior campaigner for the Centre for International Environmental Law.

Protecting human rights. Host country agreements signed with the UN organising body should include human rights safeguards. This year’s document has not yet been made public, however, a leaked version shows there are no strong safeguards, she added.

“The host country, the UNFCCC and all parties have a responsibility to make sure there is a safe civic space in the context of climate talks.”

– By Kasmira Jefford